2. Inflation and Recession Risk
According to the Walters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicator Survey, economists see a 72% chance of meaningful inflation returning within the next 6 months and a 47% chance of recession in the next 12.
In other words: Stagflation slow growth plus high inflation is back on the table.
3. The Misery Index
This lesser-known economic indicator adds the inflation rate to the unemployment rate. A higher number equals more “misery.”
Economists predict the Misery Index will peak at 8.1% in Q3 2025, before declining slightly to 6.9% by the end of 2026.
To compare:
- During the Great Depression, unemployment alone was over 25%.
- During the 1970s stagflation, the Misery Index reached nearly 20%.
So yes, things are shaky but nowhere near Greater Depression levels.
So What About Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin?
Kiyosaki’s bullishness on precious metals and crypto is no secret. But should you follow his lead?
Gold & Silver
Precious metals have long been considered a hedge against geopolitical risk and inflation. In unusual fashion, both gold and the stock market are near all-time highs, which typically doesn’t happen together.
But most CFPs we spoke with agreed:
“Gold and silver are useful hedges but they’re not get-rich-quick assets.”
They don’t produce revenue, like a business or real estate investment would. Their value is speculative based on market perception, not underlying cash flow.
Bitcoin
Kiyosaki claims Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2035. That’s quite a leap, even for crypto bulls.
And while Bitcoin has shown enormous growth since its inception, it’s also proven wildly volatile. As one investor shared:
“I have some crypto, but it’s play money. I fully expect to lose it or gain a lot. It’s speculation, not investment.”
Bitcoin, like gold, doesn’t generate revenue. It’s only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it. That makes it a risky place to stash your life savings, especially during uncertain economic times.
Why Real Estate and Stocks Still Matter
While Kiyosaki downplays more traditional investments, CFPs and economists agree: real estate and equities remain solid long-term vehicles for wealth building.
Why?
- They generate revenue. Rental properties produce monthly cash flow. Companies generate earnings.
- They can be valued objectively. Unlike speculative assets, real estate and stocks can be priced based on income and market fundamentals.
- Moreover, they offer diversification. Real estate provides a counterbalance to equities, especially in times of volatility.
And remember panic sells create opportunities for smart buyers. Those who keep their cool often scoop up assets at a discount when others are fleeing the market.
